No Evidence of Iranian Nuclear Weapon Program

[Doug]

WASHINGTON — Despite President Bush's claims that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons that could trigger "World War III," experts in and out of government say there's no conclusive evidence that Tehran has an active nuclear-weapons program.

Even his own administration appears divided about the immediacy of the threat. While Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney speak of an Iranian weapons program as a fact, Bush's point man on Iran, Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns, has attempted to ratchet down the rhetoric.

"Iran is seeking a nuclear capability ... that some people fear might lead to a nuclear-weapons capability," Burns said in an interview Oct. 25 on PBS.

"I don't think that anyone right today thinks they're working on a bomb," said another U.S. official, who requested anonymity because of the issue's sensitivity.

See here.

[Lawood]

Incidentally, Iraq began actively selling oil in Euros in 1999-2000.

Iran began selling oil in Euros and yen about 2 years ago.

A nation can keep its currency propped up via the barrel of a gun for only a limited time.

[Dardedar]

Incidentally, Iraq began actively selling oil in Euros in 1999-2000.

Iran began selling oil in Euros and yen about 2 years ago.

DAR
That doesn't seem to be accurate. Consider:

***
Published on 29 Jan 2006 by Energy Bulletin. Archived on 29 Jan 2006.
Trading oil in euros – does it matter?

by Cóilín Nunan

With speculation mounting over the possibility of a US- or Israeli-led military attack of Iran sometime later this year, it has been suggested that real motivation for US antipathy towards the Iranian government has little to do with concerns that Tehran is developing nuclear weapons. Some commentators have instead suggested that Iran’s real Iranian threat to the US and its economy is that, in defiance of the US administration, it is attempting to establish an oil ‘bourse’ (exchange) in March of this year which would enable oil to be traded in euros. This would move oil sales away from their usual denomination in dollars and would, it is argued, undermine the American currency with grave consequences for the US economy. (1,2) This internet-based debate is reminiscent of what occurred before the invasion of Iraq when several observers, myself included, hypothesised that Saddam Hussein’s decision to sell Iraqi oil in euros was perhaps one of the reasons the US wanted ‘regime change’. (3,4) The US decision after the invasion to return Iraqi oil sales to dollar denomination and to convert back into dollars all Iraqi foreign currency reserves, which had been in euros prior to the war, was certainly entirely consistent with this theory. (5)

However,...

The rest here

It's kind of long. Cutting out the middle part, the last two paragraphs seem to refute the claim:

"So can we conclude that an Iranian oil bourse trading oil in euros is the real reason for the current crisis? Perhaps this is prematurely jumping to conclusions. The claim that the Iranian bourse will definitely trade in euros appears to me to be based primarily on speculation at this stage. I have yet to see a clear statement on this from the Iranian government. There are certainly good reasons for suspecting that it might be in euros, since Iranian government sources have previously spoken favourably about trading for oil in euros (9,10) and according to a statement attributed to the Vice-Governor of the Iranian central bank, Iran began selling oil in euros to Europe in 2003. (11)

However, in January of 2004, Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, who was then Oil Minister, played down the possibility of Iran switching to euro payments, (12) and as recently as last September, the head of Iran’s stock exchange dismissed claims that the new oil bourse would be using the euro as the transaction currency. (13) We also know that Iran has previously been involved in discussions with other primarily Muslim countries, like Malaysia, which aimed at introducing an entirely new currency, the ‘Islamic Gold Dinar’, which would be used in international trade, and in particular the oil trade. (14) In the euro’s favour, on the other hand, is the fact that little has been heard of the Islamic Gold Dinar in the past year, and just last month the Chairman of the Majilis Energy Commission (the Majilis is the Iranian parliament) was quoted as saying that ‘preparatory measures have been taken to sell oil in euros instead of dollar’ and that initially Iran should ‘sell its oil in both dollar and euro, and then gradually move toward euro’. (15) However, until we hear from official Iranian sources that the trading will be in euros, it is probably unwise to draw too many firm conclusions.

The possibility that the Iranian oil bourse might not use euros would not necessarily diminish its significance and there could still be good reason for believing that US/UK governments and financial interests would still be strongly opposed to it as it would challenge their control of oil trading, but that is another question."

[Barbara Fitzpatrick]

I think the real powers in Iran are trying to run out the clock on Bush. They won't make any move to euros or anything else, nor will they make an injudicious move on their nuke plant. They probably won't even retaliate militarily if we keep our "push" minimal in an attack (they'll take it to the U.N., in righteous indignation). They will allow the newspapers to print bombast in response to W's bombast - but avoid a real war, since they only have to put up with him for another year (alright 14 months). Now if that nightmare scenario of W using his "powers" and Blackwatch to take over the country next year actually happens, not just the Middle East will be in flames.